Pete Alonso · 1B · Age 31 · Data as of
Is the Polar Bear in decline?
NOT YET.
No decline signal has broken down. The profile still matches the hitters who lasted.
Five of six decline signals read strong at age 31. The profile matches the hitters who lasted, not the ones who collapsed. One flag: strikeout rate sits above what the graceful agers carried.
And is the contract paying off?
+$5.1M
Against the $155M guaranteed, the Orioles paid under fair value. Graded FAIR VALUE, though the band sits near a boundary and the dollar figure is the honest read. See the model.
The six decline signals
Exit velocity
STRONG
94.2 mph · 3rd in MLB
The 92 mph line is the published early-warning threshold, not a new claim. Exit velocity is the best single predictor of retained power.
Hard-hit rate
STRONG
56.4%
Calibrated so the ZiPS base case crosses into WATCH late in the contract rather than at signing.
Production
STRONG
141 wRC+
Set so the published ZiPS glide path (112 OPS+ by 2030) reads WATCH around 2029, matching what the scenario model implies.
Plate discipline
STRONG
11.6%
Aging hitters who hold or improve walk rate age best; a collapsing walk rate tends to follow bat-speed loss.
Durability
STRONG
541 straight games · 2nd-longest active streak
Injury is the most common cliff trigger in the comp set, so durability is scored on availability rather than on any rate stat. The 80-95% band without a live streak reads WATCH.
Strikeout rate
WATCH
23.9%
The 28% line is the published early-warning threshold. The WATCH band starts at 22% because Alonso sits above what the graceful agers carried; this is a level judgment, not a trend judgment.
No trend indicators yet. This is the first snapshot in the log, so there is nothing to compare it against. Movement appears here automatically once a second snapshot is appended.
Where the numbers sit
| Field | 2026 | Source |
|---|---|---|
| wRC+ | 141 | FanGraphs |
| WAR | 3.6 | FanGraphs |
| Home runs | 28 | ESPN |
| Games | 125 of 125 | ESPN |
| Exit velocity | 94.2 mph | Savant |
| Hard-hit rate | 56.4% | Savant |
| xwOBA | 0.392 | Savant |
| Strikeout rate | 23.9% | Savant |
| Walk rate | 11.6% | Savant |
| Pull / oppo | 34.2% / 24% | Savant |
Partial season, through . Anything drawn from these figures is provisional and is marked as such.
Verdict history
Every verdict this site has issued, and when. The record is here so the site can be held to it.
- NOT YET
One entry so far. This is the inaugural verdict, issued 19 August 2026. The strip grows as the contract does, and a verdict that changes is this site’s news.
And what it was worth
- +$5.1M FAIR VALUE
One entry here too. Both strips are stored rather than recomputed, so an old reading stays what it was even after the model that produced it has moved.